We apply quantum trajectory techniques to analyze a realistic setup of a superconducting qubit coupled to a heat bath formed by a resistor, a system that yields explicit expressions of the relevant transition rates to be used in the analysis. We discuss the main characteristics of the jump trajectories and relate them to the expected outcomes (“clicks”) of a fluorescence measurement using the resistor as a nanocalorimeter. As the main practical outcome, we present a model that predicts the time-domain response of a realistic calorimeter subject to single microwave photons, incorporating the intrinsic noise due to the fundamental thermal fluctuations of the absorber and finite bandwidth of a thermometer.